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Long Term Reliability Assessments
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) prepares reliability assessments in accordance with the Energy Policy Act of 2005, in which the United States Congress directed NERC to conduct periodic assessments of the reliability and adequacy of the bulk power system (BPS) of North America.  NERC operates under similar obligations in many Canadian provinces, as well as a portion of Baja California Norte, Mexico.
 
Reliability Standards are the planning and operating rules that electric utilities follow to support and maintain a reliable electric system. These standards are developed by the industry using a balanced, open, fair, and inclusive process accredited by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI). While NERC does not have authority to set Reliability Standards for resource adequacy (e.g., reserve margin criteria) or to order the construction of resources or transmission, NERC can independently assess where reliability issues may arise and identify emerging risks. This information, along with NERC recommendations, is then made available to policy makers and federal, state, and provincial regulators to support decision making within the electric sector.
 
NERC prepares seasonal and long-term assessments to examine the current and future reliability, adequacy, and security of the North American BPS. For these assessments, the BPS is divided into 26 assessment areas, both within and across the eight Regional Entity boundaries.
The preparation of these assessments involves NERC’s collection and consolidation of data from the Regional Entities. Reference case data includes projected on-peak demand and energy, Demand Response (DR), resource capacity, and transmission projects.
The 2013 Long-Term Reliability Assessment provides an independent assessment of the 10-year reliability outlook for the North American BPS while identifying trends, emerging issues, and potential risks. Additional insight will be offered regarding resource adequacy, security, and operating reliability, as well as an overview of projected electricity demand growth for individual assessment areas.
 
NERC prepared the 2013 LTRA with support from the Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) under the direction of the NERC Planning Committee (PC). This report is based on data and information submitted by each of the eight Regional Entities, which are represented on the RAS. Initial data and information were submitted in June 2013, and periodic updates occurred throughout the development of the report. Any other data sources included by NERC staff are identified accordingly.
 
Long-Term Reliability Challenges and Emerging Issues:
  1. Resource Adequacy Assessments in TRE-ERCOT and MISO Fall Below Planning Reserve Margin Targets.
  2. High Levels of Variable Generation May Present Operational and Planning Challenges.
  3. Fossil-Fired Retirements and Coordination of Outages for Environmental Control Retrofits Continue to Present Challenges.
  4. Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electric Power Will Require New Planning and Operating Practices.
  5. Increased Use of Demand-Side Management Creates More Uncertainty for System Planners and Operators.
  6. Nuclear Generation Retirements and Long-Term Outages Reduce Flexibility and Present Potential Reliability Challenges.
Click HERE to access the 2013 Long Term Reliability Assessment (PDF)
 

Archived Long Term Reliability Assessments

> NERC Reliability Assessment Guidebook
> Assessment List of Acronyms
> Assessment Glossary
> Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D) Page
> Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) Page

 
 
 

 Probabilistic Assessments

 
  
  
  
2012_ProbA.pdf2012 Pilot Probabilistic Assessment (Redacted)7/10/2011
2014ProbA April Report Final_Final.pdf2014 Probabilistic Assessment4/22/2015
2016ProbA_Report_Final_March.pdf2016 Probabilistic Assessment3/23/2017
Appendix_I_Detailed_Probabilistic_Modeling_Table.pdfAppendix_I_Detailed_Probabilistic_Modeling_Table
Appendix_III_Probabilistic_Assessment_Data_Forms.pdfAppendix_III_Probabilistic_Assessment_Data_Forms
FRCC.pdfFRCC
MISO.pdfMISO
MRO-Manitoba_Hydro.pdfMRO-Manitoba_Hydro
MRO-SaskPower.pdfMRO-SaskPower
NERC_2012_Probabilistic_Assessment_Final.pdfNERC Probabilistic Assessment - Addendum to the 2012 Long-Term Reliability Assessment7/10/2013
NPCC.pdfNPCC
PJM.pdfPJM
SERC.pdfSERC
SPP.pdfSPP
TRE-ERCOT.pdfTRE-ERCOT
 

 Assessment Areas

 
 

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