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Winter Assessments
Winter Assessments assess the adequacy of electricity supplies in the United States and Canada for the upcoming winter peak demand periods.
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) prepares Winter Reliability Assessments in its capacity as the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO). The assessment provides an independent view of the 2013–2014 winter reliability outlook for the North American bulk power system (BPS) while identifying trends, reliability issues, and potential risks. Additional insights include resource adequacy and operating reliability, as well as an overview of projected seasonal electricity demand for individual assessment areas.
The 2013-2014 Winter Reliability Assessment provides an independent assessment of the reliability of the bulk electricity supply and demand in North America from December 2013 through February 2014. The report specifically provides a high‐level reliability assessment of 2013 winter resource adequacy and operating reliability, an overview of projected electricity demand and supply changes, and focused area assessments.
The primary objective in providing this assessment is to identify areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American BPS and make recommendations for remedial actions as needed. The assessment process enables BPS users, owners, and operators to systematically document their operational preparations for the coming season and exchange vital system reliability information.
The Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS) of the NERC Planning Committee (PC) prepared this report based on data that the eight NERC Regional Entities and other stakeholder participants submitted by October 7, 2013. Any other data sources used by NERC staff in the preparation of this document are identified in the report. NERC, in concert with industry stakeholders, performed detailed data checking on the reference information received by the Regions, as well as a review of all self‐assessments, to form its independent view and assessment of the reliability projected for the 2013–2014 winter season. NERC also uses an active peer review process to develop reliability assessments. The peer review process takes advantage of industry subject matter expertise from many sectors. This process also provides essential checks and balances for ensuring the validity of the assessment and the conclusions provided by the Regional Entities.
The following key findings in this assessment point to common themes across North America or Region-specific challenges:
  • Resources are adequate to meet 2013–2014 winter peak demand.
  • Prolonged cold weather events in the Northeast may limit natural gas availability.
  • Preparation initiatives are in place for extreme weather and other abnormal operating conditions.
Click HERE to access the 2013 Winter Reliability Assessment (PDF)

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