Scenario Highlights Potential Risks from Accelerated Retirements; Urges Risk-Informed Planning, Review of Existing Tools

​ATLANTA – The bulk power system is undergoing a significant transformation in its generation resource mix, which alters the operating characteristics and constraints of the grid. NERC conducted a stress-test scenario to evaluate the impact of accelerated generation retirements on resource adequacy, transmission adequacy and bulk power system plans. Further, this scenario provides insights that could otherwise be overlooked if perspectives are limited to only currently confirmed retirements. The scenario affirmed that risk-informed planning and existing tools can assure continued reliability of the grid as the generation resource mix undergoes this evolutionary change.

​NERC’s Generation Retirement Scenario incorporates significant retirements into an aggressive timeframe and is intended solely to identify risk — not be a predictive forecast. The scenario uses data from NERC’s 2017 Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the U.S. Energy Information Administration to identify potential coal-fired and nuclear generation retirements by 2025 and then accelerates those retirements to occur in 2022. 
 
Posted On: 12/18/2018